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What impact will AI have?

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I hope you read this post, it was really fun to write. I spent way too much time on the cons, so will try and come up with some pros in the coming week. AI seems like a term that is constantly being tossed about. So much so that there usually is a scoff from an audience as soon as someone brings up the "what do you think about the impact that AI is going to have" questions at events.  Its a huge topic that I must admit I know fairly little about. From what I do currently know, there are two main arguments. The first argument for AI being its benefits in terms of productivity. Since the 2008 GFC, UK productivity growth has been very weak- averaging about 0.5% per year (well below the around 2% annual growth seen before the crisis); most of you, I'm sure, will have heard this as "the productivity puzzle". Could AI be the savior to our stagnant productivity by reducing the amount of time required to retrieve information and replace monotonous tasks? Or is it the ot...
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The Rail industry.

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Rail industry Investigation: General reading: - The govt is in the process of renationalising the railways. This might be inspired by the European and Swiss models. - High performing systems have common characteristics. The time table is seen as the core product, infastructure spending is planned on a multi decade base, - Govt funding for rail was £11.9bn in 2024/25, accounting for about 46% of total rail income - The amount of subsidies given to the natural monopoly was above pre-pandemic level - Rail fares have risen by 5.1% this year, and the revenue gained has increased by 12bn from apr 24 to march 25. - In 2023, parts of the railway industry was brought back in the public sectors hand due to repeated service failures... Why do we Economists care about rail? Labour mobility - the UK is known for a low geographical mobility especially when it comes to London vs other parts of the country Potential externalities? Reducing pollution? The current (though expiring) set-up of the UK rail...
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The relationship between law and the market

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 The relationship between law and the market: - lse lecture - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ffq5UI58-5w - Pretty interesting lecture, even though Im not really aspiring going into law. I think what stood out for me most was the fact that civil liability is a way to force companies to be more cautious and regulate them by punishing them for their actions. It seems more effective in the sense that government doesnt have to spend resources to actively find flaws rather than punish for flaws that have been incidented (if thats a word). I found it a decently compelling argument to also tackle issues such as market failure espeecially for governments with low budgets.  Legislation – rules created for all people in a jurisdiction. Top-down, uniform, and politically enforced. Often slow to adapt and vulnerable to political incentives. Public choice economics -Politicians and regulators respond to incentives just like market actors. -Legislation may serve special interests rather ...
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How can one use mathematics and data to navigate uncertainty, test economic claims, and make policy more evidenced based driven.

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How can one use mathematics and data to navigate uncertainty, test economic claims, and make policy more evidenced based driven? Step 1: What is the problem? This question was triggered by a question my economics teacher asked. "You want to get into Data science and would like to be an Macroeconomist. What do you think data science will provide us with in the next 10 years?" And yes, although I do want to get into data science and aspire to be a Macroeconomist, I did end up struggling with the question.  My argument went as follows. Whilst economics provides diagrams, tools and a medium to explain and understand, data science is where the real fun begins, its the building blocks to making these models and diagrams. Take the Phillips curve for example, when Phillips was analyzing nearly a century of British economic data, from around the 1860s to about the 1960s, he found a correlation between inflation and unemployment. In the same way, we can use data and mathematics to addr...
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Short post- why is the housing market so bad world wide?

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 Why have homes become so unaffordable? Heres the video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xpEBcSE9Ipc How affordable a house is is calculated by finding the ratio between the median income and medien house price. In top cities, this level is around 9 which economists call "severely unaffordable" Demand has been far greater than supply. Low interest rates between 1990s and 2000s have caused prices to surge and caused investors to buy homes for yields. Homes are a safe store of value/ The rise is alot down to the fact that houses have become investment vehicles rather than homes, with large institutions such as hedge funds buying them up. For example, private equity and companies such as legal and general, Lloyds, Blackstone. Interest rates in 2021 to 2023 rose sharply: mortgages tripled in costs, developers stopped projects, and landlords raised rents to cover costs  Covid caused massive supply side issues, and the derived demand of products such as labour to manufacture th...
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Post Budget:

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Post Budget thoughts. What are my Opinons? Headline measures:   Tax yield to increase by £26.6bn a year by 2031. Heavily back ended budget, £9bn by 2031, short term plan for the futyre.  £22bn of headroom Reduce energy cost in 2026 by removal of levies (disinflationary) Per-mile charge for EVs (£1.8bn) Increased gambling duty (£1.1bn) Cap of salary sacrifice at £2k (£4.7bn) Increase tax on dividends & property returns (£2bn) Freeze of income tax thresholds (£23bn) Mansion tax – surcharge on valuable homes Increase in NLW (£12.71 but the Real living wage foundation said that it should be around £13.60) Removal of 2-child cap to child benefit for those on UC Corp tax capped at 25% with minor changes to increase tax yield (£1bn). Accounting to prevent anti-avoidance Many of these forecasts the OBR dont know that these are going to be good for raising revenue.  Single working parent: Rented accomodation/min wage earner Helped by increase to NML -> increased ...
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