Ian Sewart's run down of the summer economy webinar


my notes:


dominant themes of 2025


tariffs- impact

boom in AI 









central banks cutting rates. A lot last year 

policy uncertainty- weaker dollar. Loosing if fiscal policy loosening

movements in government bonds 

rearmants

gold prices are up 

chinese equities are up, china economy less effected by US tariffs. Huge stimulus 

european equities through reforms 

Bitcoin doing well- benefit of uncertainty

MagC up due to improvements in technology

30 year governments bonds are down 

Dollar down this year 

energy costs are down

Scale of shock in march april due to tariffs. Lot of anxiety about tariffs a

history of tariffs. Us tariff rates declined to very levels. Levels have averaged about to 18 percent. Apple is holding their prices. Tariffs raised extra 2 trillion from tariffs, about 70% of costs of measures from trumps BBB. 

global economy gained by 2.3 percent

unemployment rates have been drifting higher. 

Capital spending in US

green line - investment in green sectors  private sector buying euro area equities 

reasons for growth in europe. growth in europe low 

Many countries running higher levels of debt Countries needed to borrow more in the wake of pandemic and covid 






AI summary of my notes and the recording he sent btw:

Dominant Themes of 2025

  • Tariffs

    • Significant economic shock in March–April, driving anxiety.

    • US tariff rates historically declined, but have risen again.

    • Average tariff levels now ~18%.

    • Raised ~$2 trillion in revenue; ~70% of costs tied to Trump’s BBB measures.

    • Apple maintaining prices despite tariffs.

    • Chinese economy less affected; large stimulus boosted equities.

  • AI & Technology

    • AI boom driving US stock market and economy.

    • In H1 2025, IT and data centre investment accounted for all US GDP growth.

    • Tech investment = 6.1% of GDP but disproportionately influential.

    • Investment concentrated in Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta.

    • US private AI investment in 2024:

      • 11× Chinese levels, 5× European levels (Stanford estimate).

    • Parallels drawn with past tech booms (railways, electricity, dotcom).

    • Magnificent Seven tech stocks = ⅓ of S&P 500.

    • Risks: many AI pilots fail (MIT: 95% fail rate); productivity benefits lagging.

    • Debate: transformative potential vs. overhyped promises.

  • Monetary Policy & Currency

    • Central banks cutting rates (after many hikes last year).

    • Policy uncertainty weighing on markets.

    • Dollar weakening, especially with potential fiscal loosening.

  • Markets & Assets

    • Government bonds volatile; 30-year bonds down.

    • Gold prices up (safe-haven demand).

    • Bitcoin strong amid uncertainty.

    • European equities supported by reforms; private sector buying euro equities.

    • Energy costs falling.

  • Geopolitics & Defense

    • Rearmament trends increasing globally.

  • Macroeconomy

    • Global economy grew 2.3%.

    • US unemployment drifting higher.

    • US capital spending patterns shifting, green investment rising.

    • Many countries running higher debt after COVID-era borrowing.


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