LSE Public lecture- US-Iran relations under Trump 2.0: prospects and challenges




US-Iran relations under Trump 2.0: prospects and challenges:

- Department of International Relations:

Chair: Prf Peter Trubowitz

Dr Dana H Allin

Dr Anahita Motazed Rad

Dr Sanam Vakil



Current sate of US-Iran relations:

  • Conflicts are often connected, many are often seen as independent silos. 
  • Pre and Post Oct 7th
  • Iran and US have had an adverse relationship for at least 4 decades. Many countries wanted a bridge with. JCPOA- deal to bring peace, If you havn't spoken to a country in 4 decades, and trying to understand them through 3rd parties, you have not UNDERSTOOD them. Its irrational to try and understand them through spies, which has led to Iranian challenges
  • 2 main policies. Policy of engagement- US determine to manage Iran's nucleur plain. And also "containment policies". These policies have not really had an effect.
  • JCPOA- Forced Iran to rollback of nucleur programme in order to reduce santions. Was this really a sucess?
  • Trying to find a resolution for Iran, is a political and not a unified problem to "resolve" or "manage"
  • Trump withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018, and Iran has decided to become more intense, being able to use its nucleur power to negotiate. Through this time we have seen many shocks, around Iran and Israel. Iran used its proxy network to put pressure on regional.
  • Infastructure damaged, shock that US didnt swoop in and protect the Gulf states. UAE ties ammendments with Iran to repair relationships. US withdrawals caused changes to relationships in the region.
  • Israel has taken a more forward militia approach recently, strikes on Iran.
  • Israel and Iran was a contained war, countries werent easily simply brought into the mix. It is a war that had no resolution. Leaving Israel on its own isnt the best idea.

What is Trump actually able to do?
  • Idea of terror/political manifestations. Iran is the centre of the war or terror. Iran was determined to obtain a high scale of militia power. Iran's rejection of Israel- which US had a relationship with. If Israel wanted to attack on Iran, or through US wanted to do the same. There wasnt any possibility of stopping Iran. 
  • Hence a diplomatic relationship was necessary. JCPOA didnt really save the problem but helped to manage. "act of wilful vandalism"- to abolish the JCPOA, 
  • US telling the people that the Iranian nucleur arms have been abliterated was a hoax. There are simply things that Trump can do that many other presidents were simply not able to.  Its pretty hard to make these lasting deals if you keep breaking them,

The conceptual relationship itself:
  • Cultural anarchy
  • From 1979, mistrust has 
  • Depragmatic engagement- there was a moment- 2001, in Afghan. There is also the JCPOA that was a moment of relief.
  • There has been a luckian style of rivalry. Iraq, Afghan, and Pakistan are countries that each country has tried to get power over and influence in the respective regions
  • Foreign policy is now seeen as a movement for economic growth and national prosperity. Many countries are trying to to balance a triangle of three states: China, US and Russia. Energy, technology and policts. Iran of significanct context, is finding itself trap ideoligical policy and is only really able to find relief through China and Russia. It has been excluded from many positions of benefit
  • Still, Iran is at the centre of US's middle eastearn policy- maximum pressure sanction. Aim to change the behaviour of Iran
  • Is Iran isolated? Its down but not completely out. Make comparisons to Japan and Germany post WW2. There are many domestic problems with Iran too. 
  • After the 12 day war, Iran is trying to find its way to diplomacy. US is using the European forces and essentially forcing Iran to just simply effect. 

The narrative has changed in recent weeks. 

  • Is Iran in the fault? Or have they been a product of the torment given to US. 
  • Iran has defo tried to improve its relationships with countries within the region trhough the use of direct dialouge. This has been seen trhough and increase in improvements in diplomatic relations. All region states want to improve this relationship and want this round to be very contained as the way it is 
  • They might be worried that a second round may be more worisome
  • Trump would potentially want to get more investment in the USA. He did come to the gulf states, and were on a "sugar-coated" engagement. They felt positive for the gulf states and even reduced sanctions on Syria. 
  • US has been destabilsing. September 8th strikes on Dohar might have pissed Trump off. Hence, more willingness to look better at Israel. He is a president that is trying new things. These may not actually work, but I guess he's trying. The real devil would however be really in the details.

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